JCR Cricket
1st Test Test Upcoming

PAK vs SL Prediction: Who Will Win the 1st Test?

Flag of PakistanPakistan VS Flag of Sri LankaSri Lanka
Date
Monday, 9 November 2026
Start time
10:30 AM IST
Venue
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, Rawalpindi
Tournament
Test Cricket

Our prediction

Data-led analysis
Flag of Sri Lanka
We expectSri Lanka to win
PAK 43%SL 57%
Our editorial win estimate, not a statistical certainty.

Why: Sri Lanka get our vote to win. Our estimate gives Sri Lanka about a 57% chance of winning. On recent form there is little between the two sides. Pakistan and Sri Lanka have met 28 times in this format in our data: 9 wins for Pakistan, 10 for Sri Lanka, with 9 ending without a winner.

Last updated: Analysis by JCR Cricket Desk · How we predict This is our editorial opinion based on information available at the time of writing. Cricket is unpredictable and no prediction is guaranteed. We do not provide betting advice.

PAK vs SL: recent form & head-to-head

Last five results (newest first)

Flag of PakistanPAKLLLWL
Flag of Sri LankaSLNRLNRLW

Head-to-head record

9
PAK wins
28 matches
9 tied/NR
10
SL wins

All TEST meetings in our database, 2006–2023 (Cricsheet and our own results)

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium pitch report & weather

Avg 1st-innings score
390

The average first-innings score at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium is 390 (7 matches in our data). Teams batting second have won 4 of 6 here (67%).

The weather forecast for the start is clear, around 22°C. The rain risk is low at 0%.

Venue numbers (last 5 years)

Chasing side won
67% (4/6)
Toss winners chose to field
29% (7)
Average 1st-innings total
390 (7)

Counts in brackets are matches. Data: Cricsheet and our own records.

Weather in Rawalpindi

Conditions
Clear
Temperature
22°C
Rain chance
0%
Humidity
62%

Forecast for the start time, checked 7 Nov, 12:50 PM. Weather data: Open-Meteo

PAK vs SL probable playing XI

Expected line-ups based on recent selections and team news. Confirmed after the toss.

Flag of PakistanPakistan
  1. 1 Azan Awais
  2. 2 Mohammad Ali
  3. 3 Shan Masood
  4. 4 Mohammad Abbas
  5. 5 Abdullah Shafique
  6. 6 Babar Azam
  7. 7 Saud Shakeel
  8. 8 Mohammad Rizwan
  9. 9 Ali Usman
  10. 10 Imam-ul-Haq
  11. 11 Khurram Shahzad
Flag of Sri LankaSri Lanka
  1. 1 PHKD Mendis
  2. 2 DM de Silva
  3. 3 AM Fernando
  4. 4 GS Dinusha
  5. 5 LU Igalagamage
  6. 6 NGRP Jayasuriya
  7. 7 LD Chandimal
  8. 8 CBRLS Kumara
  9. 9 DPS Sooriyabandara
  10. 10 N Dickwella
  11. 11 K Nuwantha

PAK vs SL match analysis

Who will win PAK vs SL? Pakistan meet Sri Lanka in the 1st Test at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Monday, 9 November, starting at 10:30 AM IST. Test matches reward patience: first-innings runs and the fourth-innings conditions often decide them.

Key stats before PAK vs SL

  • Our pick: Sri Lanka
  • Start: Monday, 9 November, 10:30 AM IST
  • Head to head: PAK 9–10 SL (28 matches)
  • Last 5 PAK: L L L W L
  • Last 5 SL: NR L NR L W
  • Average 1st-innings score at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium: 390 (7 matches)
  • Chasing wins at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium: 67% (4/6)
  • Toss winners choosing to field at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium: 29% (7 matches)
  • Forecast: Clear, 22°C, rain 0%

Form guide: Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Pakistan come in with 1 wins from their last 5 (L L L W L). They arrive on a run of 3 defeats. For Sri Lanka, it is 1 wins in the last 5 (NR L NR L W). On recent form there is little between the two sides.

PAK vs SL head to head

Pakistan and Sri Lanka have met 28 times in this format in our data: 9 wins for Pakistan, 10 for Sri Lanka, with 9 ending without a winner. They last met in 2023 at Sinhalese Sports Club Ground, where Pakistan came out on top.

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium: team records and toss prediction

At this venue, Pakistan have 3 wins from 10 matches in our data.

Captains winning the toss at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium have chosen to bat first 71% of the time (7 matches). When Pakistan win the toss, they tend to bat. Sri Lanka usually prefer to set a target. The toss itself is a coin flip; this toss prediction is about what the winner is likely to choose.

Playing 11 for PAK vs SL

Pakistan probable playing 11, based on their recent selections: Azan Awais, Mohammad Ali, Shan Masood, Mohammad Abbas, Abdullah Shafique, Babar Azam, Saud Shakeel, Mohammad Rizwan, Ali Usman, Imam-ul-Haq, Khurram Shahzad.

Sri Lanka probable playing 11: PHKD Mendis, DM de Silva, AM Fernando, GS Dinusha, LU Igalagamage, NGRP Jayasuriya, LD Chandimal, CBRLS Kumara, DPS Sooriyabandara, N Dickwella, K Nuwantha. PHKD Mendis, DM de Silva and AM Fernando have been fixtures in Sri Lanka's recent line-ups.

PAK vs SL prediction: our verdict

Our PAK vs SL prediction: Sri Lanka to win. Cricket is unpredictable, so treat this as an informed opinion.

Related: all Tests predictions · Pakistan · Sri Lanka.

PAK vs SL toss prediction

Estimate only

A toss is a coin flip and cannot be predicted. Teams winning the toss at this venue have chosen to bat about 71% of the time (7 matches).

What the toss winner is likely to choose: PAK would probably bat first (72%). SL would probably bat first (75%).

Based on toss decisions at this venue and each team's habits.

PAK vs SL prediction: FAQs

What is the PAK vs SL prediction?

Sri Lanka get our vote to win. Our estimate gives Sri Lanka about a 57% chance of winning. Cricket is unpredictable, so treat this as an informed opinion.

What is the PAK vs SL head to head record?

Pakistan and Sri Lanka have met 28 times in this format in our data: 9 wins for Pakistan, 10 for Sri Lanka, with 9 ending without a winner. They last met in 2023 at Sinhalese Sports Club Ground, where Pakistan came out on top.

What is the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium pitch report?

The average first-innings score at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium is 390 (7 matches in our data). Teams batting second have won 4 of 6 here (67%).

When does PAK vs SL start?

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka starts on Monday, 9 November at 10:30 AM IST, at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, Rawalpindi.